New GDP Series Revises FY26 Growth to 7.6%, Lowers India’s Economic Size

According to government data released on February 27, 2026, India’s economy is projected to grow at 7.6% in the 2025-26 financial year under the second advance estimates, up from the earlier forecast of 7.4%. These estimates are part of a revised national accounts series that uses 2022-23 as the new base year, replacing the old 2011-12 base to better reflect the current structure of the Indian economy.

The updated methodology incorporates improved data sources, including GST filings and vehicle registration data, along with enhanced statistical techniques to capture economic activity more accurately. Under this new series, quarterly growth data show strong momentum, with GDP expanding by 7.8% in the October-December quarter of FY26, supported by robust performance in manufacturing and services.

While real GDP growth shows a positive trend, the revision has also led to a downward adjustment in the nominal size of the economy. This recalibration may affect key fiscal ratios such as the fiscal deficit and debt-to-GDP metrics, reflecting a smaller nominal GDP base in comparison to earlier estimates.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and the Chief Economic Adviser have noted that these changes aim to provide a more representative view of India’s economic performance, aligning statistical measurement with contemporary economic realities. The outlook for FY27 remains optimistic, with growth expected between 7.0% and 7.4%.